A national push to boost agricultural leads so that large areas of farm land can be reforested or returned to natural peatland and wetland habitats could help ensure the industry delivers steep emissions cuts by 2050.
That is the conclusion of a major new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change this week, which explores how an agricultural industry that currently accounts for 10 per cent of UK greenhouse gas emissions can deliver on national targets to cut emissions 80 per cent by 2050.
The study argues that emulating the levels of forest and wetland cover seen in other parts of Europe could help deliver steep emissions cuts, alongside related benefits such as improved biodiversity and greater flood protection.
"Land is a source of greenhouse gases if it is used to farm fertiliser-hungry crops or methane-producing cattle, or it can be a sink for greenhouse gases - through sequestration," said senior author Prof Andrew Balmford, from Cambridge University's Department of Zoology. "If we increase woodland and wetland, those lands will be storing carbon in trees, photosynthesising it in reeds, and shunting it down into soils."
The paper suggests that a programme of land-sparing where forest cover is upped from 12 per cent to 30 per cent - the same level seen in France and Germany - and 700,000 hectares of wet peatland is restored would allow the agricultural industry to play a full role in meeting the UK's overarching carbon target for 2050.
However, Balmford acknowledged such an approach would have to be accompanied by a sharp increase in agricultural yields on remaining farmland. "We estimate that by actively increasing farm yields, the UK can reduce the amount of land that is a source of greenhouse gases, increase the ‘sink', and sequester enough carbon to hit national emission reduction targets for the agriculture industry by 2050," he said.
The study, which included input from researchers at the Universities of California, Bangor, Aberdeen, East Anglia, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Forestry Commission, Rothamsted Research, ADAS UK Ltd and Scotland's Rural College (SRUC), looked at a number of different scenarios for future agricultural yields.
It argued there was potential for improving farm management and optimising breeding programmes to produce plants that are better at capturing soil nutrients, sunlight and water, and produce animals that result in less methane. It also explored how reducing food waste and curbing meat consumption could help free up more land for carbon sink habitats. Crucially, the study accounts for increased demand from a rising population and does not assume increased reliance on food imports.
"Reducing meat consumption appears to offer greater mitigation potential than reducing food waste, but more importantly, our results highlight the benefits of combining measures," said Balmford. "For example, coupling even moderate yield growth with land sparing and reductions in meat consumption has the technical potential to surpass an 80 per cent reduction in net emissions. We need to turn our minds to figuring out policy mechanisms that can deliver sustainable high yield farming that doesn't come at the expense of animal welfare, soil and water quality, as well as safeguarding and restoring habitats."
The study comes in the same week as separate research in the Journal of the Royal Society Interface revealed more than half of the UK's food and feed now comes from overseas.
"The UK is currently importing over 50 per cent of its food and feed, whereas 70 per cent and 64 per cent of the associated cropland and greenhouse gas impacts, respectively, are located abroad," the report said. "These results imply that the UK is increasingly reliant on external resources and that the environmental impact of its food supply is increasingly displaced overseas."
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