New analysis from seven top global climate experts suggests much more ambitious national action plans needed to curb rate of warming
Average global temperature rises could hit the symbolic 2C threshold as soon as 2050 even if all national Paris climate pledges are fully implemented, seven of the world's top climate scientists have warned.
In addition, they argue the higher ambition target set by the Paris Agreement of 1.5C of warming above pre-industrial levels is "almost certainly unobtainable and could be reached by the early 2030s".
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Authored by a team of experts led by the UK's Sir Robert Watson - a former chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - the new analysis published today calculates that even if all nationally determined contribution (NDC) pledges are fulfilled, greenhouse gas emissions will in 2030 still be 33 per cent above the level needed to stand a reasonable chance of keeping temperature increases below 2C.
As of last year, average temperatures have already reached 1C higher than pre-industrial times, and in order to stop the world reaching 2C of warming, the scientists believe the world needs to reduce emissions far faster over the coming decades with a view to reaching net zero CO2 emissions by between 2060 and 2075.
With weather-related events attributed to climate change having already doubled in number since 1990, the report, entitled The Truth About Climate Change, warns an additional doubling in the number of events already experienced is likely by 2050 unless firm action is taken.
As a result, the scientists call for much stronger action to be taken both to raise the ambition of existing "inadequate" NDCs and to improve communication of climate change to the public.
A "radical change" in the way the world produces and uses energy is urgently needed, they argue, with around 82 per cent of the world's energy currently derived from the burning of fossil fuels.
However, the report also suggests too much focus in countries' NDCs is aimed at delivering emissions reductions from energy, arguing more action is needed to tackle emissions from all sectors.
"Focusing only on electricity generation misses the emissions generated by other sectors, such as transport, industrial processes, waste management, and crop and livestock production, among others. Clearly, a much more comprehensive approach must be implemented," said Watson.
The report highlights how a greater focus on climate adaptation is required, alongside faster deployment of clean technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS).
Elsewhere, the report criticises climate sceptic arguments and laments the slow progress of climate action over the past two decades. It also argues the failure to include both international shipping and aviation in the Paris Agreement has "allowed these sectors to postpone action to reduce emissions".
Nevertheless, the analysis describes the Paris Agreement as "successful" overall in significantly raising ambition on tackling climate change, and concludes "there is still time to slow down the current path towards reaching the 2C target within the next few decades".
The analysis follows a separate study this week which found climate change is occurring thousands of times faster than the ability of the world's grasses to adapt, therefore threatening the future of staple foods such as wheat and rice, which provide half of all the calories consumed by humans.
"Climate change is happening now and much faster than anticipated," said Watson. "While the Paris Agreement on climate change is an important step in the right direction, what is needed is a doubling or tripling of efforts. Without additional efforts by all major emitters, the 2C target could be reached even sooner."
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