Despite policy uncertainty, analysts predict more than 140GW of new wind capacity will be commissioned in Europe over the next decade
Plans by cash-strapped governments to redesign subsidy programmes for wind power is "driving a rush to market" for developers keen to deliver projects ahead of any regime change, according to new analysis released yesterday by renewable energy consultants MAKE.
The surge in planned development, coupled with pressure on governments to meet 2020 EU renewable energy targets, will deliver 140GW of new wind capacity by 2025, MAKE predicted.
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Germany will lead the capacity expansion, with the expected addition of 36GW of wind power between 2016 and 2025, followed by the UK and Turkey with 15.7GW and 13.5GW respectively. In total, Northern Europe is expected to account for 60 per cent of all new installations, the report said.
The offshore wind sector is expected to become a key driver of growth, with average capacity set to grow by 3GW a year from 2017 to 2025.
However, the report warns that as governments phase out generous renewables subsidies in favour of support mechanisms more sensitive to power price fluctuations, investor returns are likely to fall and the number of large commissioned projects slump. "Europe is adjusting to a new normal," it suggests.
Looking ahead to 2030, the lack of country-specific obligations under the European Union's 2030 climate targets are a "barrier to long-term policy certainty", the report suggests, and should be addressed in order to enhance the post-2020 legal framework and drive new investment.
The analysis echoes a report released this week by industry body WindEurope, which called for national legislation to support planning and permitting of wind energy projects to continue beyond 2020, and warned an unstable regulatory framework in Europe and stronger political commitments for renewables outside of Europe are resulting in a shift in wind energy investment trends towards other markets.
Investor confidence would be boosted if the more ambitious target was adopted in the upcoming revision of the EU's Renewable Energy Directive, the report said, adding that a common energy strategy should be reflected in clear and ambitious political commitments.
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